Moscow’s Anti-Ukrainian Stance Will Lead to the Collapse of Russia

By Andriyan Fito and Roman Solomonyuk
Translated by Ihor Cap and Dariya Dyryk-Cap

Ukraine is interested in a stable situation in Russia – seeing that possible internal armed conflicts between different subjects may arise. It won’t be long before the Kremlin leaders themselves will plead for help.

Medvedev deliberately made his famous statement on the eve of a meeting with Angela Merkel in Sochi.  His statement is a test of the West’s loyalty to the actions exhibited by the Kremlin.  Merkel came to Russia in the hopes of receiving money for the shipbuilding yards in Wismar and Warnemünde, and to discuss the extension of the "Nord Stream" project and the sale of Opel to the Russians.

In the end, she received Medvedev’s support and as a token of appreciation she practically remained silent on events in the North Caucasus and waved a threatening finger in Ukraine’s direction.

Ukraine, in fact, is the last forepost on the path to recreating and strengthening the Soviet empire and not so much externally as internally.  Moscow seeks to make an example of Ukraine for those nationalities that are seeking independence from Russia.  The Nordic neighbor needs a myth about some external threats so as to consolidate its own population.

The thing is that there is a second "sovereignty parade" wave looming in Russia and growing discontent of the center.  This is especially so after the military conflict with Georgia and the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as separate subjects of international law.  But recognition is clearly not so simple, if even allied Belarus, despite its remoteness from the Caucasus, did not venture to support Moscow.

More and more we hear of gunshots, explosions, people disappearing, murdered human rights activists, and large-scale clean-up operations in Ingushetia and Chechnya, in a word - a full-scale war.  The dissenting voices grow increasingly louder in  Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, and the Far East and generally throughout the whole of Siberia.

For example, Medvedev’s words towards Ukraine’s unrelenting policy contrast sharply with those of his federation's subjects who are willing to provide Ukraine with energy at much lower prices.  Internally, they have already begun to openly differentiate Russians from “Muscovites”, which was unheard of only a few years ago. 

It is especially apparent today with production closings and thousands of people who find themselves out on the street, and the regions seeking greater independence from the center.  That which was recently fiction may become reality.  This scenario is illustrated in many futuristic and scientific papers.

It is clear that Ukraine's leadership should have an official position on its neighbor’s decentralization processes. It cannot evade a position of its own on these issues and future presidential candidates.

That is why Russia is seeking to “kill two birds with one stone.” It is pressuring Ukraine in order to obtain a loyal, obedient president while doing its utmost to maintain the integrity of its own federation.

The world is awaiting great transformations. The financial crisis only stalled this process.  Naturally, in these circumstances, Ukraine is interested in a stable situation in Russia - as possible internal armed conflicts may arise between its subjects.  It won’t be long before the Kremlin leaders themselves will plead for help. 

In fact, Russia lost Yushchenko as a mediator who could have been a key element in mediating relations between the center and the rebellious regions.  It is unlikely that the next Ukrainian president, if it is not Yushchenko, will ever have sufficient political weight to undergo such dialogue, for example, in Tatarstan or Ingushetia.

Authors: Andriyan Fito, NGO "Expert Group", in association with Roman Solomonyuk, Information Center for Territorial Problems.

Source: Ekonomichna Pravda (Economic Truth), http://www.epravda.com.ua/columns/4a9e32fda60ff/

Translators: Ihor Cap and Dariya Dyryk-Cap from EzReklama.

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